2025 has already boasted some impressive box office hits, but the best is yet to come. James Cameron’sAvatar: Fire and Ashis set for release on June 02, 2025. It will continue the series after the director had two successes withAvatarandAvatar: The Way of Water.
This third installment will return to explore the Sully family, including Jake, Neytiri, and their surviving children, Kiri, Lo’ak, and Tuk. The film will alsointroduce the Ash people, a Na’vi clan that is at war with other communities. Like its predecessors, the film is expected to have a huge budget and be stocked with moments of impressive spectacle.
The sci-fi franchise is planned to go pastAvatar 3.Avatar 4andAvatar 5were announced years ago, as part of a multipart sequel to the successful 2009 film. Since then, their release dates (along with those of the eventual 2022 filmThe Way of Waterand this year’sFire and Ash) have been pushed multiple times.
Despite the delays,Avatar 3is finally arriving this year. If successful,the film could cement Cameron’s trilogy as one of the most fruitful series of all time.But this creates alot of pressure forFire and Ash, in a way the franchise has yet to experience.
The Future Of The Avatar Franchise Rests On Avatar 3’s Performance
Avatar: Fire And Ash Has To Do Well
While it is set up in a good position for its predecessors,Avatar: Fire and Ashis now in a place where it has to do well. Firstly, it needs to make money to offset its cost alone.The Way of Waterwas one of the most expensive films ever made, with a total tab of $350 million, and the third installment’s budget is probably similar.
If this third film were to flop, however, it could jeopardize the sequels' viability to finish production.
Including the cost of publicity and distribution, which will be plentiful for a film like this, big Hollywood movies usually need to bring in about 2.5x their budgets at the box office to break even and turn a profit. IfAvatar 3has a similar budget to the second film, this meansit needs something in the range of $875 million to break even.
The pressure is on to perform this well or better since the fate of the series hangs in the balance. Cameron confirmedAvatar 4andAvatar 5would happen in January 2023, givenThe Way of Water’s profit. If this third film were to flop, however, it could jeopardize the sequels' viability to finish production.
Avatar 1 & 2 Didn’t Have This Type Of Pressure
Avatar 2 And 3 Shot Back-To-Back
This is the first time in the history of the Pandora-set franchise that there has tangibly been this type of pressure.Avatarbegan as an original movie, and there was no sequel written before its release. So, if it had not done well, it would not be considered any greater failure than any other box office miss, as there were no plans to undermine.
When the next installment ofAvatarcame around, Cameron and his team decided to shoot the next two films back-to-back. While these movies still require extensive post-production work,Avatar 3was less likely to be scrapped because the initial on-set production costs have already been incurred.
Avatar 4(and5) do not have that same sense of security. Cameron has noted that thescripts have been written for the next two sequels, and has even gone on to sing their praises. Despite this forward progress, they have not been filmed. So, it seemsAvatar 3’s performance could really end up being the deciding factor.
Will Avatar 3 Do Enough To Guarantee Avatar 4 & 5 Happen?
It Should Be A Big Hit
Even with this pressure, there is no reason to believeAvatar 3will not do well. After all, its predecessors were not just blockbuster hits, but among the highest-grossing films of all time.AvatarandAvatar: The Way of Waterare the first and third highest-grossing movies of all time at the worldwide box office.
Avengers: Endgameis the second-highest-grossing movie of all time.
TheAvatarfilms also have a global appeal, which makes their chances even stronger. Even ifAvatar 3did not reach quite the same heights, it could still do $1.5 billion or more, and pretty easily. The pressure is still on for it to perform, but it would be incredibly surprising if this franchise had a major drop-off.
Avatar 4currently has a release date set for August 02, 2025, andAvatar 5is set for June 10, 2025.
